| Transcript |
HOUSTON VOICE / MAY 31, 1996 5
Power at the Polls: new survey paints portrait of gay, lesbian, bisexual vote
Washington. D.C. April 25. 1996 ... Now
that the primary season is effectively over,
the major political parties are planning
election strategy. Which states and constituencies will bring victory? Which
states and voters need attention? And which
can be written off?
But a new survey, released by the National
Gay and Lesbian Task Force (NGLTF), for the
first time paints a portrait of a political
constituency that Democrats and Republicans ignore at their own risk.
"Power At the Polls: The Gay. Lesbian and
Bisexual Vote" is based on exit polling data
from the 1992 and 1994 elections. The data
was originally collected by Voter News
Service (VNS). a major national polling
organization, and until now has remained
largely untapped by the media. The report
was produced by the NGLTF Policy Institute. NGLTF is a non-partisan organization. The gay vote survey is an analysis of
gay. lesbian and bisexual voter demographics, political persuasions and voting
patterns. It provides the first statistically reliable picture of self-identified
gay. lesbian and bisexual voters.
"We are releasing this report at this critical time because gay issues have exploded
into the 1996 presidential campaign in an
unprecedented way." said John D'Emilio,
NGLTF Policy Institute director and
author of the report. "After a generation of
coming out of the closet, gay, lesbian and
bisexual Americans are flocking to the
polling booths."
The VNS 1992 exit polling data is based on a
nationally representative sample of
15,488 voters. The poll allowed gays, lesbians and bisexuals to identify themselves for the first lime in a presidential
election. Some of the major findings
include:
—Gay. lesbian and bisexual self-identified voters constituted 3.2 percent of the
total voting population in the 1992 elec-
lions. That is roughly the size of (he national
Latino vote in the same year, more than double the size of the Asian vote, and slightly less
than the Jewish vote. It's also as large as the
old staple of American politics, the family farm vote "Because we know that fear still
keeps the majority of gay people in the
closet, this figure of 3.2 percent must be
considered a floor rather than a ceiling, and
a basement floor at that," said D'Emilio.
"In other words, the total number of these
voters is certain to be higher than three percent and is likely to be considerably
higher."
—The gay, lesbian and bisexual vote can be
decisive in urbanized states. The self-identified gay vote is not evenly distributed
throughout the population, but instead is
heavily concentrated in cities. In towns
with a population between 5000 and 10,000
people, the self-identified vote is slightly
more than one percent. But in cities with
populations between 250,000 and
-500.000. the figure rises to more than eight
percent, "As time goes on and more smalltown residents come out. this figure will
grow. But the urban concentration means
the gay. lesbian and bisexual vote can be the
margin of victory in key states," said
D'Emilio. "It can also make the critical difference in many Congressional races and in
state and local elections as well." D'Emilio
points out that eleven states with urban areas
and well-organized and visible gay. lesbian and bisexual communities—such as
California. New York, Illinois. Michigan and others—together provide 49 percent of the total electoral vote. Add any two
other states, and a candidate wins the presidency.
The self-identified gay. lesbian and
bisexual vote is also a younger vote, and will
inevitably grown in "Because of the
changes provoked in American life by the
gay wild lesbian movement, younger votes
are significantly more likely to self-identify than are older voters." said D'Emilio. In
comparison to the overall voting popu-
lation. ihe self-identified vote is under-
represented in the older—than-60 group, is
concentrated in the under-40 group, and is
represented especially heavily among
voters younger than 30. "Gay voters
already constitute five percent of the
under-30 voters," said D'Emilio. "As our
issues continue to have high visibility in
national and state politics, there is every
reason to believe the proportion of self-
identified voters will get larger over
time."
The gay, lesbian and bisexual voter displays a clear political profile. The polling
data shows the gay voter leans heavily toward
liberal positions on key issues. The gay
voter is more likely to favor more government services and higher taxes to pay for
them; downplay the importance of deficit
reduction: support greater access to health
care; blame government neglect rather
than a decline in moral values for social problems; believe that government should
encourage tolerance of diverse value systems; and support continued legalization of abortion. "In other words, this is the
profile of a politically progressive constituency," said D'Emilio.
The survey also details who gay voters vote
for. In 1992.Clinton received 43 percent of
the total popular vote, but 72 percent of the
gay. lesbian and bisexual vote. Only Jewish voters and African—American voters
provided Clinton with larger margins. The
gay vote for Clinton surpassed the percentage of votes he received among union households and Latinos.
But. cautions D'Emilio. the gay vote is not
guaranteed to any candidate. "If the only
two options in 1996 were to vote Democratic
or Republican, the story would seem to be
over. Bul gay. lesbian and bisexual voters
have a third (option: they can stay home."
said D'Emilio.
Evidence from the 1994 elections supports this assertion In the midterm elections, when gay issues received less attention than in 1992. and when disappointment
was still fresh from ihe Clinton Adminis
tration's support of the "don't ask, don't
tell" policy, the self-identified gay, lesbian and bisexual vote shrunk by more than a
third. "It still remained a heavily Democratic vote, but there were a lot fewer votes
cast." said D'Emilio.
Whether voters stay home in 1996 or rush to
the polls depends on several factors, said
D'Emilio. Will the Democratic party
actively court the gay vote, or simply take it
for granted? Will the Republican Party castigate the gay community like it did in 1992,
or try to avoid polarizing social issues? Will
the extremist Christian Right make gays the
target of their rhetoric, and thereby galvanize gays, lesbians and bisexual to come
out and vote? Will gay organizations succeed in their plans to coordinate massive
voter registration drives, and will they be
able to mobilize those voters?
"In other words, the Republican Party can
antagonize the gayvote, or try to neutralize it." said D'Emilio. "The Democratic
Party can effectively mobilize it, or watch it
slip away in inaction. To a degree, the survey confirms what we have known only intuitively—but never had statistically viable data to prove." said D'Emilio. "There is
a gay. lesbian and bisexual vote. It is growing, it is concentrated, and it is still untapped."
The survey was released today at a Washington D.C. press conference, which also
featured a report by Carmen Vasquez.
director of public policy. Lesbian and Gay
Community Services Center. New York
City, on the "Promote the Vote" gay. lesbian, bisexual and transgender national
voter registration drive; and Tony Valen-
zuela and Brenda Schumacher, co-chairs of
Lesbian. Gay. Bisexual and Transgender
VOICES '96. an ad hoc coalition planning
actions at the GOP Convention in San Diego
this year.
For a copy of the gay vole reporr. coniact
NGLTF at (202)332-6483. ext 3303. or visit
the NGLTF Web site at http://
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